I found this interesting little article comparing the loss of AirAsia QZ8501 to the crash of Northwest Airlines flight NW705 from the 1960’s as they both tried to avoid thunderstorms.
Written by Bruce Drum:
AirAsia Indonesia (Indonesia AirAsia) (Jakarta) vanished from radar screens over the Java Sea on December 28 on a flight from Surabaya to Singapore with 162 passengers and crew members on board. Tragically there were no survivors.
Investigators have ruled out any act of terrorism. The same group has stated it was unlikely an explosion brought down the airliner. According to the preliminary reports, there were no sounds of gunfire or explosions on cockpit voice recorder. Analysis of the flight data recorder of Airbus A320-216 PK-AXC (msn 3648) operating flight QZ 8501 showed the A320 climbing at an abnormally high rate, then plunging and suddenly disappearing from radar. The A320 was climbing at a steep ascent of 6,000 feet a minute (a normal climb rate is 1,000 to 2,000 feet a minute) before it suddenly dived and crashed in the Java Sea. This is not a normal climb rate. The crew had asked air traffic control for a higher altitude due to severe thunderstorms in the area. The request was denied due to other air traffic in the area.
Read the full report from CNN: CLICK HERE
Was flight QZ 8501 trapped in the updraft of a severe thunderstorm and then it stalled and fell to the sea?
It has happened before with devastating results. Dial the clock back to February 12, 1963 over Florida’s Everglades. While the crashes of ValuJet Airlines flight 592 and Eastern Airlines flight 401 are more well known, there was a third crash in the Everglades that is very similar to the tragedy of AirAsia Indonesia flight QZ 8501. Both involved flying into severe thunderstorms.
Northwest Airlines (Northwest Orient Airlines) flight NW 705 was a regularly scheduled flight from Miami International Airport to Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport. After takeoff from MIA the flight crew operating Boeing 720-051B N724US (msn 18354) encountered an approaching cold front with large thunderstorms. The crew tried their best to avoid the approaching line of thunderstorms.
The accident (from Wikipedia quoting the official accident report):
Prior to departing from Miami, the flight crew questioned the ground controller at the airport about the departure routes being used, and he replied that most flights were departing “either through a southwest climb or a southeast climb and then back over the top of it.”
After the jet lifted off from runway 27L, it made a left turn based on radar vectors from Miami Departure Control, to avoid areas of anticipated turbulence associated with thunderstorm activity. Another flight had followed the same guidance shortly before the jet took off.
While maintaining 5,000 feet and a heading of 300 degrees, Flight 705 contacted controllers and requested clearance to climb to a higher altitude. After a discussion between the flight and the radar departure controller about the storm activity, and while clearance to climb was being coordinated with the Miami Air Route Traffic Control Center, the flight advised “Ah-h we’re in the clear now. We can see it out ahead … looks pretty bad.”
At 13:43, Flight 705 was cleared to climb to flight level 250. They responded, “OK ahhh, we’ll make a left turn about thirty degrees here and climb…” The controller asked if 270 degrees was their selected climbout heading, and they replied that this would take them “… out in the open again…” Controllers accordingly granted the jet clearance. Following some discussion about the severity of the turbulence, which was described as moderate to heavy, the flight advised, “OK, you better run the rest of them off the other way then.”
At 13:45, control of Flight 705 was transferred to Miami Air Route Traffic Control Center. There were communication difficulties, although after the jet was provided with a different frequency to tune to, the flight crew established contact with Miami ARTCC. Several minutes after contact was established, the jet’s altitude began increasing with a rate of climb gradually increasing to approximately 9,000 feet per minute. Following this rapid ascent the rate of climb decreased through zero when the altitude peaked momentarily at just above 19,000 feet. During this time the jet’s airspeed decreased from 270 to 215 knots and as the peak altitude was approached, the vertical accelerations changed rapidly from 1G to about -2G.
In the next seven seconds the negative acceleration continued to increase at a slower rate, with several fluctuations, to a mean value of about -2.8G, the jet began diving towards the ground with increasing rapidity. As the descent continued with rapidly increasing airspeed, the acceleration trace went from the high negative peak to 1.5G, where it reversed again.
Below 10,000 feet the forward fuselage broke up due to the forces of the dive. The main failures in both wings and horizontal stabilizers were in a downward direction, and virtually symmetrical. The forward fuselage broke upward and the vertical stabilizer failed to the left. All four engines generally separated before the debris of the aircraft fell in unpopulated area of the Everglades National Park, 37 miles west-southwest of Miami International Airport.
The accident was investigated by the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) which later became the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB):
Synopsis of the CAB Aircraft Accident Report:
Northwest Airlines, Inc., Boeing 720B, N724US, operating as Flight 705, crashed in an unpopulated area of the Everglades National Park, 37 miles west—southwest of Miami International Airport at approximately 1350 e. s. t., on February 12, 1963. All 35 passengers and the crew of eight were fatally injured.
Flight 705 departed Miami at 1335 e.s.t. Circuitous routing was utilized during the climbout in an effort to avoid areas of anticipated turbulence associated with thunderstorm activity. At 1347 e.s.t., in response to a request for their position and altitude, the flight advised, “We’re just out of seventeen five (17,500 feet) and stand by on the DME one.” This was the last known transmission from the flight. Shortly thereafter the aircraft entered a steep dive, during which the design limits were exceeded and the aircraft disintegrated in flight.
The Board determines that the probable cause of this accident was the unfavorable interaction of severe vertical drafts and large longitudinal control displacements resulting in a longitudinal upset from which a successful recovery was not made.
The FAA later added in its Lessons Learned section this summation:
As the investigation of Northwest Flight 705 proceeded, other jet transports became involved in similar upsets. These pitch upset events were collectively referred to as “Jet Upsets.” This terminology was used because the phenomena appeared to be unique to the new generation of swept wing jet transports which began to enter service a few years earlier. The investigation of Northwest Flight 705, and associated similar pitch upset incidents, led to changes in operating procedures and design requirements for jet transports, as well as improved forecasting and dissemination of hazardous weather information to Air Traffic Control and Flight Crews. These actions proved effective in substantially reducing the occurrence of this type of pitch upset events.
Add in the Disparity in pay between the Fee for Departure Airlines (Regionals) and their so called mainline partners and the future of air travel looks even uglier
Thirty-eight years ago to day I flew my first airplane. Looking back on the experience I am just as excited to climb into the cockpit today as was the wide eyed 15 year old of the past. I have told this story before but as in all good stories it can be told again.
As far back as I can remember I was in love with aviation. I have been told, and I vaguely remember, that even as a young child aviation was part of my world. Like many young children I had imaginary playmates, Map and Groger, two heroes out saving the world. Of course both were pilots flying airplanes and helicopters while rescuing the needy with ease.
Through out my school days nothing really captured my attention as much and as firmly as airplanes. Yes I had bedroom wall posters of Porsche’s and Ferrari’s, Favorite athletes, and seriously what 15 year old boy did not have Farrah Fawcett looking down at him as he drifted off to sleep. However it was airplanes that would always stop me in my tracks. Even today I will stop and look up as the shiny birds climb into the sky.
Thanks to Edina High School and Anders Christenson, my Aerospace teacher, I jumped at the chance to learn about flying. Aerospace I. taught us the basics of flying. It was through Aerospace I. that we were given the opportunity to fly a real airplane. Three students would each split a leg between Flying Cloud (KFCM), Saint Cloud (KSTC) and then to Hutchinson (KHCD) and back to Flying Cloud airports. I drew the second leg KSTC to KHCD. By the time we reached Saint Cloud I was air-sick green about to blow chunks at any moment. What the hell this is my dream and I’m about the puke my guts out, this is not happening! While everyone was chuckling at my demise my 15 year-old ego and pride refused to give in. I took the controls and flew for the very first time a Cherokee 140 between Saint Cloud and Hutchinson municipal airports. Despite the nausea I did not blow chunks and I did not give up
I have spent the vast majority of my working life at airports, pumping gas into aircraft or flying passengers around the country. The past twenty-five years I have flown airplanes for the same company, though they have changed their name a few times. Despite bankruptcies and pay cuts I still get up every day looking forward to going to work. I love what I do. I am living my dream.
There are a few times in life where I live simultaneously as an adult and as a 9 year-old boy full of awe and wonder. When I watch sport or play my games the 9 year-old lives on strong dreaming of one day making it to the pros’s. When I see cars drive by that catch my eye. Mind you the car does not have to exotic just something that is different in its own way. Instantly I am transported back to a day when posters of my favorite cars joined Farrah Fawcett, famous athletes and P-51 Mustangs on my bedroom wall. How, even today, nothing will stop me in my tracks like the roar of a jet engine. Given all the I spend at airports and all the hours of I have logged flying jets, I still stop and the 9 year-old boy watches in awe and wonder as the planes roll by.
Today Delta put to bed an icon of the aviation industry. The last DC-9 in Delta’s fleet will soon be gathering dust in some desert awaiting the crusher. Or the first regional jet may find new life hauling boxes or carrying on in some third world nation.
Either way below is a good read if you are an aviation enthusiast.
The great thing about a new airplane, besides the “new plane smell” is how it feels. Like a new car every surface, every knob and every switch is smooth, not only to the touch but also in it’s respective operation. Push the thrust levers forward and there is no hesitation as the motors effortlessly, in unison, spool up to takeoff power. Pull back on the yoke and you are treated to a positive response as the airplane gently breaks it’s bonds with the earth. Turn right or turn left the plane heads off in the direction you point her.
Sitting in the cockpit and looking around you are struck by the freshness of your surroundings. Gone are the layers of grime the older ships have accumulated through out their yeas of service. knocks and crannies are shinny and clean; free form the human hair, dead skin, dust incased mire that oozes from older aircraft. When I sit in the captains chair gone is the funky stench rising from the sheep skin covered seats. I am awe struck at the easy my chair not only moves forward and aft but also up and down. My lumbar has finally found much needed support. Under food white socks remain white. Yellow toenail clippings have yet to make an appearance, while the bottom of your shoes are free from globs of chewing tobacco that seem to metastasize every day both in number and size.
Give this new girl one winter and she will fit in along side the rest of the fleet, dripping, oozing with a funk only the well traveled seem to have.
So I have been poking around the web reading what I can relating to the regional airline industry. I came across two articles in Aviation International News (Aviation International News.) that reenforce my argument why we, as a pilot group at Pinnacle Airlines, should vote yes on amending our current contract. In short, as I said in a previous post the economic realities demand it.
“…it became clear that at least one group of losers would emerge—namely the employees of the regional airlines who owe their jobs to the bloated fleets of 50-seat jets no one else seems to want anymore.”
There is no secret that Delta Airlines will phase out the 50 seat jet from their fleet. Delta is replacing the smaller CRJ aircraft with the larger 76 seat CRJ900, to be flown by Delta’s Connection Partners, and 88 Boeing 717’s, to be flown by Delta’s own mainline pilots. By the numbers, Delta plans to park 343 CRJ200’s accounting for 17,000 seats and idling 3430 regional airlines pilots. With the addition of the announced 70 CRJ900’s plus the 88 Boeing 717 aircraft Delta will add back into the system 15,616 seats flown by a combination of 1580 regional and mainline pilots. To state the obvious, that is half the number of pilots and aircraft to fly basically the same number of people. I am assuming five crews per aircraft, it could be more, doubtful it will be less.
“A new pilot contract ratified by the pilots of United Airlines on December 15 will open more opportunities for “large” regional airplane flying by United Express affiliates but likely result in another large-scale grounding of 50-seat regional jets.”
Now that United Airlines has come to terms with their pilot group; it seems all but certain that they will also be removing 50 seat jets from their fleet. Like Delta United will be replacing the 50 seat jets with a combination of larger 76 seat regional jets and narrow body Embraer E190/195’s and Bombardier CSeries CS100 aircraft to be flown by mainline pilots. It is not hard to infer that the all but certain merger between American Airlines and US Airways will see another mass grounding of 50 seat regional jets.
While to some it may seem the regional airline industry is sinking and Pinnacle is rearranging the deck chairs on a doomed ship, it is in fact an industry in transition. Continued consolidation and mergers are inevitable how we vote will determine if the Pinnacle pilot group will be employed or competing against thousands of other out of work regional airline pilots.
As always I invite you to join the discussion and post your thoughts and comments below.